“The Cyclicality of Births and Babies' Health, Revisited: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance,” with Lisa Dettling, NBER working paper 30937, February 2023.​

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“The Causes and Consequences of Declining US Fertility,” with Phillip Levine, in ed. Melissa S. Kearney and Amy Ganz, "Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World,” Aspen Institute Economic Strategy Group, January 2023.

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“The “college gap” in marriage and children’s family structure,” NBER working paper 30078. May 2022

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“The US Covid-19 baby bust and rebound,” with Phillip B. Levine, Journal of Population Economics, vol 36(4), pages 2145-2168.

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​“Will birth rates in the U.S. rebound? Probably Not.” Brookings Institution. May 24, 2021.

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“The puzzle of falling birth rates since the Great Recession,” with Phillip B. Levine and Luke Pardue, Journal of Economic Perspectives, winter 2022, 36(1): 151-176.

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"Half a Million Fewer Children? The Coming Covid Baby Bust.” with Phillip B. Levine, Brookings Institution. June 15, 2020.

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“Child Poverty in the U.S.,” EconoFact, March 2020.

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​“We could abolish child poverty in the U.S. with Social Security benefits for poor kids,” EconoFact, March 2020.

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“Widening Socioeconomic Differences in Children’s Family Structure,” EconoFact, June 2019.

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“Early Childhood Education by Television: Lessons from Sesame Street ,” with Phillip Levine, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 11(1), February 2019: 318-350.

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“Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Non-Marital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom,” with Riley Wilson, Review of Economics and Statistics 100(4), October 2018: 678-690.

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“The Economics of Non-Marital Childbearing and the Marriage Premium for Children,” with Phillip Levine, Annual Review of Economics (9), September 2017.

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“What Does Culture Have to Do With the American Dream?” Institute for Family Studies blog, May 22, 2017, edited transcript of remarks given at American Enterprise Institute. 

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“The ‘marriage premium for children’ depends on family resources,” with Phillip Levine, Brookings Social Mobility Memos, May 13, 2017.

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“Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV’s 16 and Pregnant on Teen Childbearing,” with Phillip Levine, American Economic Review 105(12), 2015: 3597-3632.

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“Investigating Recent Trends in the U.S. Teen Birth Rates,” with Phillip Levine, Journal of Health Economics (41), May 2015: 15-29.

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“House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby,” with Lisa Dettling, Journal of Public Economics 110, February 2014: 1-166.

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“Income Inequality and Early, Non-Marital Childbearing,” with Phillip Levine, Journal of Human Resources 49, winter 2014: 1-31.

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​“Giving Secondary Earners a Tax Break: A Proposal to Help Low- and Middle-Income Families,” with Lesley Turner, The Hamilton Project Discussion Paper, December 2013. (Proposal introduced into federal legislation by U.S. Senator Murray, March 2014.)

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“Why is the Teen Birth Rate So High in the United States and Why Does it Matter?” with Phillip Levine, Journal of Economic Perspectives 26(2), Spring 2012: 141-63.

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"Subsidized Contraception, Fertility, and Sexual Behavior,” with Phillip Levine, Review of Economics and Statistics 91(1), October 2010: 137.

Policy essay here:

“Reducing Unplanned Pregnancies through Medicaid Family Planning Services,” with Phillip Levine, Brookings CCF Brief number 39, July 2008. 

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​“Teen Pregnancy Prevention,” in ed. Phillip Levine and David Zimmerman, "Targeting Investments in Youth: Fighting Poverty when Resources are Limited," Princeton University Press, October 2010.

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“Socioeconomic Disadvantage and Early Childbearing,” with Phillip Levine, in ed. Jonathan Gruber, "An Economics Perspective on the Problems of Disadvantaged Youth," University of Chicago Press, October 2009.

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“Parental Education and Parental Time with Children,” with Jonathan Guryan and Erik Hurst, Journal of Economic Perspectives 22(3), Summer 2008: 23-46.

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“Is There an Effect of Incremental Welfare Benefits on Fertility Behavior? A Look at the Family Cap” Journal of Human Resources 39(2), 2004: 295-325.